Meet McCain’s VP Pick
It took a while, but I am now reasonably certain that McCain has finally decided on a VP and that VP is Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. This is not necessarily the VP the mainstream GOP WANT (that would be Bobby Jindal), but he is definately the best pick for VP. Here’s why:
It’s all about the Electoral College. If McCain wants to have any sort of chance at the Presdidency, he has find out where he can peel off states to maximize the electors he can win. This election has been far from normal in terms of what states are leaning where. Earlier this year it seemed that Ohio was all but lost to Obama. Now it is leaning into the McCain camp (+6). Florida, on the contrary, was solid McCain earlier, but is now tied. Michigan and Minnesota are now competitive for the Republicans; and Colorado and Nevada are now competitive for the Democrats.
The biggest possible coup for the Republicans would be to take Minnesota. Gov. Pawlenty is a fairly popular GOP governor in a traditionally Democratic state that has been trending GOP in recent years. If Pawlenty was McCain’s VP candidate, it just might be enough to push Minnesota into the Republicans’ column on election day. That would make up for losses to Obama in some of the Western states and just might win him the Presidency.
But there is more than Tim Pawlenty than just the electoral college benefit. He is also loved by the evangelicals, which really don’t care for McCain. Gov. Pawlenty’s pastor Leith Anderson (why does this election seem to be revolving around the candidates’ spiritual advisers?) happens to also be President of the National Association of Evangelicals. So when Pawlenty goes to church he literally goes to the headquarters of the American evangelical movement. In 2003, Pawlenty and Anderson hosted 1,600 evangelical leaders at the church for a two day conference.
McCain’s moderate stance on many social issues, as well as his independence from President Bush’s policies, have made him rather unpopular with this group, which could make or break him on election day. Gov. Pawlenty’s access to 30 million evangelicals make him an obvious and valuable pick for McCain. Despite his feelings of disdain towards this demographic, picking Pawlenty would signal to them “hey, even though we don’t get along, Pawlenty will be in the White House to protect your interests, and that’s still better than Obama, right?” McCain needs them to turn out to push him ahead in toss-up states.
Bobby Jindal has widely been discussed as McCain’s VP pick and this may well be the guy that both McCain and Republicans REALLY want. I know that is the case with me. However, Gov. Jindal is young, charismatic, and well respected in the GOP. He has the potential to be a Republican Obama when the time is right. However, he does not want to be the VP because he does not want to hitch his rising star to a failing ticket. I mean, look at what happened to Edwards. So although Jindal may be everyone’s favorite, he will not likely accept McCain’s VP spot. Also, Louisiana appears to solidly be in McCain’s column, so picking him would bring no electoral benefit.
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